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A great rift has opened in the world’s leading democracy
A tumultuous year in American politics reaches its culmination tomorrow after a seemingly interminable election campaign that has done nothing to heal the country’s divisions. The two candidates, Kamala Harris for the Democrats and former president Donald Trump, remain neck-and-neck in the polls. A last minute survey in the state of Iowa, traditionally a banker for the Republicans, hinted at a surprise win for the vice-president which would change all calculations. There are signs that the turnout among women is higher than men, which would also hurt the Trump challenge since his campaign has been unashamedly macho in its approach.
But no one can tell with any certainty what is going to happen. At the start of the year this seemed inconceivable. Mr Trump was facing a number of court appearances and the received wisdom held that he could not be convicted of a felony and still run. But he was and he has. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden denied his age and faltering diction would play badly, yet one disastrous television outing saw his party’s grandees turn against him. Ms Harris was drafted in, yet despite taking an early lead in the polls has found herself pretty much in the same position as Mr Biden.
Amid the frenetic campaigning, Mr Trump was almost killed by an assassin and possibly targeted by another. His willingness to carry on campaigning openly regardless of the threat to his personal safety has strengthened his support. The scene is now set for a monumental night that may come down in the end to a few thousand votes in key swing states like Pennsylvania. Such a close-run result is guaranteed to exacerbate the great rift that has opened in the world’s leading democracy. We can only hope that its history and institutions are resilient enough to withstand what may be coming next.